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Conditional probability

Conditional probability

Conditional probability

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Summary

Conditional probability 

In a nutshell

In probability, sometimes events may be dependent on each other, especially when there are sequential events (one events occurs after another event). If the probability of the second event changes depending on whether the first event has occurred or not, then conditional probability can be used.


P(AB)P(A|B)​​
AA​ and BB​​
Random events.
P(AB)P(A|B)​​
Probability of A\boldsymbol A occurring given that B\boldsymbol B has occurred.



Calculating conditional probabilities

Conditional probabilities can be calculated using a sample space diagram, a Venn diagram or a tree diagram. The idea is to calculate the probability of an event occurring from a subset of the sample where a previous event has occurred. 


Procedure

1. 
Find the number of elements for the first event.
2. 
Of the elements from the first event, find the number of elements that belong to the second event.
3. 
Divide the value obtained in 2. by the one in 1. - that will give you the probability of the second event happening knowing that the first happened.


Example

In a class of 3030 students, 2020 are brunette and, of those 20201818 are brown eyed.

If a student is chosen at random, what is the probability of him being brown eyed (A), given that he's brunette (B)?


You can solve the problem using a two-way table:



Brunette
Not brunette
Total
Brown eyed
1818​​
1010​​
3030​​
Non-brown eyed
22​​
Total
2020​​
1010​​
3030​​


There are 2020 students who are brunette, of which there are 1818 students who are brown eyed.

P(AB)=1820=910P(A|B)=\dfrac{18}{20}=\dfrac{9}{10}​​



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