Conditional probability
In a nutshell
In probability, sometimes events may be dependent on each other, especially when there are sequential events (one events occurs after another event). If the probability of the second event changes depending on whether the first event has occurred or not, then conditional probability can be used.
| | Random events. | | Probability of A occurring given that B has occurred. | |
Calculating conditional probabilities
Conditional probabilities can be calculated using a sample space diagram, a Venn diagram or a tree diagram. The idea is to calculate the probability of an event occurring from a subset of the sample where a previous event has occurred.
Procedure
1. | Find the number of elements for the first event. |
2. | Of the elements from the first event, find the number of elements that belong to the second event. |
3. | Divide the value obtained in 2. by the one in 1. - that will give you the probability of the second event happening knowing that the first happened. |
Example
In a class of 30 students, 20 are brunette and, of those 20, 18 are brown eyed.
If a student is chosen at random, what is the probability of him being brown eyed (A), given that he's brunette (B)?
You can solve the problem using a two-way table:
| Brunette | Not brunette | Total |
Brown eyed | | | |
Non-brown eyed | |
Total | | | |
There are 20 students who are brunette, of which there are 18 students who are brown eyed.
P(A∣B)=2018=109